More or Less: behind the statistics
Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
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Episodes
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Are 4% of young women in the UK on OnlyFans?
Wednesday, 18 June 2025
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. This week:We debunk a false claim that the hotel bill for immigrants is the size of the tax bill for Manchester.An article in the Spectator claimed that 4% of women aged between 18 and 34 in the UK are OnlyFans creators. We track down the source and discover that it is not very good.Do people in Scotland use much more water than people in Yorkshire? If so, why?And we examine a popular claim that today’s working mothers spend more time with their children than your stereotypical 1950s housewife did.Make sure you get in to...
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Could you be hit by a falling satellite?
Saturday, 14 June 2025
The number of satellites orbiting our planet has been rapidly increasing in recent years. But what are the risks when they start falling back down to earth?The European Space agency estimate that by 2030 there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit. We look at whether that estimate is realistic and what it means for those of us living on the ground below, with the help of Jonathan McDowell and Fionagh Thomson. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard
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How do you make something 10-times more lethal?
Wednesday, 11 June 2025
What does the government mean when it commits to developing a “10-times more lethal” army? Why was the much-missed Sycamore Gap tree said to be worth a strikingly exact £622,191? Are there really twice as many people teaching Yoga as there are in the fishing industry? Is the number of workers per pensioner really falling from 4 to 3 to 2? And what did Donald Trump mean when he said the price of eggs had fallen by 400%?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. If you want us to look at a number you think looks a bit suspicious, email the team - moreorless@bbc.co.ukPlease note...
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Is the world’s population being miscounted?
Saturday, 7 June 2025
Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult-to-answer questions. The UN estimates is 8.2 billion, but that’s largely based on census data, which is certainly not a perfect measure. So when a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. This would be a big error - a 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were. One newspaper in Spain - El Mundo - did its own sums and said this meant there were pote...
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Does the average American have fewer than three friends?
Wednesday, 4 June 2025
Tim Harford is here to sprinkle a refreshing shower of statistical insight over the parched lawns of misinformation.This week, we try to unpick the confusion over a claim made by London Mayor Sadiq Khan about the contribution skilled immigrants make to the nation’s finances.Mark Zuckerberg says that the average American has fewer than 3 friends. Is he right?Two doctors claim that up to 90% of Alzheimer’s disease can be prevented. Are they wrong?And Tim interviews an American, Catholic, philosopher of religion called Robert Prevost. Is he the pope?If you’ve seen a number in the news you thin...
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Factchecking the Trump administration’s Autism claims
Saturday, 31 May 2025
Picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known vaccine sceptic, as the Secretary for Public Health might not be the most ‘out there’ thing the Trump administration has done but it certainly raised some eyebrows. Since his appointment Kennedy has been on a mission to ‘Make America Healthy again’ and has set his sights on finding ‘the cure’ for Autism. Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neurological and developmental disorder that can affect how someone communicates, socialises, learns and behaves. In the 1980’s one study estimated that 4 in 10,000 (1 in 2500) children in Wisconsin had an Autism diag...
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Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility?
Saturday, 24 May 2025
Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity – currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people.One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls. In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country – Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange.The collected data – that covers...
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How dead is the internet?
Saturday, 17 May 2025
In the early 2020s, a conspiracy theory started circulating online known as the “dead internet theory”. This suggested that, instead of a vibrant digital super-community where people freely share things like cat videos and conspiracy theories, the internet was instead basically dead - an AI dystopia controlled by the deep state, where almost everything you see and interact with is generated by computers. The theory that the internet is 100% dead can be easily disproven, but the theory does hint at something real. The internet certainly is full of “bots”, autonomous bits of software that ...
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Warren Buffett’s brilliant bets
Saturday, 10 May 2025
Warren Buffett has announced he is stepping down as CEO of his company, Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett is one of the richest people in the world, and is widely held up as the greatest investor who ever lived. He’s also been remarkably critical of other masters of the financial universe. Tim Harford talks to Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, author of the book Trillions, about Buffett’s money making method, and how he used a massive bet to make a point about hedge funds. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Giles Aspen Editor: ...
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Bonus episode: The Autism Curve
Monday, 5 May 2025
An interruption to your regular podcast feed: the first episode of a new BBC Radio 4 series investigating the steep rise in autism diagnoses. The Autism Curve looks into the data that has prompted arguments - and conspiracy theories - about what’s behind the rapid rise. It goes on to explore changes in what autism is, who gets to define it, and whose experience counts.In this first episode, Ginny Russell discusses her 20-year study that showed an astonishing eightfold rise in new autism diagnoses in the UK on an exponential curve. And Professor Joshua Stott explains how a surprising discove...
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Donald Trump: 100 days fact-check
Saturday, 3 May 2025
On the 29th April US President Donald Trump took to the stage in Michigan to celebrate his first 100 days in office. This is a milestone in American politics, but is everything he claims the administration has achieved true?The BBC’s US National Digital Reporter Mike Wendling joins us to fact-check President Trump’s claims on immigration, the stock market, fentanyl and….eggs. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Jack Morris Editor: Richard Vadon
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Are 80% of women really only attracted to 20% of men?
Tuesday, 29 April 2025
Netflix’s psychological drama Adolescence has started a debate about teenage boys and misogyny in modern society. It tells the story of a seemingly normal young boy, Jamie, who is arrested after the brutal murder of a girl in his class. The series focuses on how young men are being radicalised against women by various podcasts, blogs and forums that make up the anti-feminist movement, the so-called ‘manosphere’. These podcasts often give men tips about how to be an ‘alpha’ male and promote the idea that feminism has set back men's rights. They use a range of material to back up their claims...
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The pioneers of proof
Saturday, 19 April 2025
Here are More or Less we’ll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners’ questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown? Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty’. Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Serie...
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How much is a human life worth?
Saturday, 12 April 2025
What is the cash value of a human life? That’s the question at the heart of The Price of Life, a book by journalist Jenny Kleeman. It turns out that there’s not just one price, there are many - depending on exactly how that life is being created, traded or destroyed. Tim Harford talks to Jenny about what she discovered. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
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The mistake in Trump’s tariff formula
Wednesday, 9 April 2025
What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs?What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze?And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This episode was originally broadcast on the 9th April.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
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Trump tariffs: All about the deficits
Friday, 4 April 2025
US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries. The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US. However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up. Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Coll...
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Is one in four people in the UK disabled?
Wednesday, 2 April 2025
Donald Trump is raising tariffs on Canada, but has his northern neighbour done anything to deserve them?In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the UK’s fiscal “headroom” was, again, £9.9bn. We explore this curious coincidence.Is it true that one in four people in the UK is disabled? And what does that mean for the state of our workforce?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard V...
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What’s Trump’s problem with Canada?
Saturday, 29 March 2025
Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that’s exactly what the US and Canada have been. They’ve enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches. But recently this relationship has soured, with President Trump calling them “one of the nastiest countries to deal with”. It looks like the era of mostly free trade is over, with a raft of tariffs set to come into force on April the 2nd, or “liberation day” a Donald Trump calls it. But is President Trump right about the trading relationship betwe...
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Could a 2% wealth tax raise £24bn?
Wednesday, 26 March 2025
Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up? A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on. The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why.And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days. Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in th...
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What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?
Saturday, 22 March 2025
On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero. Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: T...
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Why are more people claiming disability benefits?
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
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How did lockdown impact children?
Monday, 17 March 2025
In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down.It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll.But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances in life.Five years on, Tim Harford delves into the data to try to work out what we can say wit...
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What is an IQ map and can we trust them?
Saturday, 15 March 2025
You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations. If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa. Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority. However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McN...
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DOGE, apples and irregular migrants
Wednesday, 12 March 2025
It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction?Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy Mc...
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Is there really $500bn of Rare Earths in Ukraine?
Saturday, 8 March 2025
As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
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Defence Spending, Rare Earths and Trunk Truths
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk?Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
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Has the US really given Ukraine more aid than Europe?
Saturday, 1 March 2025
As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe’s aid took the form of a loan that they’ll be getting back. Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who’s correct? Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture. Presenter / Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard
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Are 150 year olds getting social security payments?
Saturday, 22 February 2025
Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100. The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live.Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever’ prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being paid to these dead people every month. But is it true? We look at whether this is new information and what the data actually tells us. Produced and presented by: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Editor: Ric...
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Has the US sent $50 million worth of condoms to Gaza?
Saturday, 15 February 2025
On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud’ and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID). President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel. On the 7th of February the USAID website was taken down. We fact check this claim and find out how much of the US budget was spent on USAID programmes. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Research: Josh McMinn Production C...
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Are black babies in the US really more likely to die under the care of white doctors?
Saturday, 8 February 2025
Babies born in the US to Black Hispanic or African American mothers are more likely to die than any other ethnic group in America. That is a fact. But the reason why this happens is unclear. In 2020 a study came out that claimed that black babies attended by white doctors after birth were twice as likely to die than white babies attended by white doctors. People jumped to the conclusion that the race of the doctor was leading to the different outcomes. But when you delve into the numbers, a very different picture starts to emerge.Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Productio...
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